Performance Results – They Can Be Misleading

Ok, I feel obligated to start this post with a disclaimer.  If you have been receiving emails from me, for any length of time…

you know my thoughts on posting performance results.

Simply put, I don’t like doing it…and not for the reasons you might expect.

I feel that one of the most asked questions I get…

“Can I See Your Results?”

is the WORST question you can ask when evaluating a trading system.

Seem counterintuitive?

…click this link and read this eBook for the answer… (start reading page 6)  Download eBook Here

Life Would be Easier if I Posted Results

Generally speaking, our results are good…and this will be confirmed by what I will share with you today.

Regularly posting these types of results would make my life much easier…

Having said that, we have taken the stance… that short of a secure courier providing you with audited results…

delivered directly to you with an unbroken security seal…they are just unverified numbers on a website.

Sadly, in this day and age where the term “fake news” has entered our lexicon, posted results on vendor websites often times are placed into the category of “fake news”.

However, most people don’t want to hear that…they simply want me to show them results.  And despite the continued drumbeat of my message (my results don’t matter, what matters is what YOU do)…I still get this statement.

Well, Jason I understand…I just want to know that the guy from whom I am learning…is a success.

Ok, “yes” I am a success…

see what I mean….that is as verifiable as me posting a bunch of numbers on my site.

Historically, our message is “Cut the Losers Short and Let the Winners Run”  and the way we have gone about giving you some verifiable “proof” is by providing you with video evidence of us executing trades in front of a live audience.  And we have done this through our YouTube Channel.  CLICK HERE  

There are  several hundred videos posted on this site that gives you a sense of what we are trying to accomplish with our training program for you.  In my estimation, it is a MUCH better idea of how we do what we do…I am not showing you some numbers on a page or cherry picking charts that tell you how great a setup would have been…

Ok, you get the point…I will move on from my “disclaimer” and on to what you came here to see.  🙂

February 26th – March 23rd Performance Review

Winning Days vs. Losing Days

(Green = Winning Day | Red = Losing Day)

Equity Curve for the Period

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

  1. Results are based upon trading 1 or 2 lots on the CL and ES.
  2. Despite the fact that I am only winning 32% of my trades, I am up almost 500 ticks.
  3. Average winning trade is 1.9 times greater than average losing trade
  4. Largest gain is 4 times greater than largest loss.
  5. Average winning trade is being held 3 times greater than average losing trade.
  6. Breakeven trades are high (25%).  This happens when holding for larger targets…markets pull back.
  7. I have had 3 losing Friday trading sessions n a row…something to watch.
  8. I have had a 5 day win streak and a losing streak of 5 out of 7 days.

Conclusion

Successful trading is about one thing.  Win more when you win…than lose when you are losing.  The way to accomplish this is by cutting your losing trades short and letting your winning trades run.  The bottom line that you see in these numbers is just that.  We have a low win percentage (because we have tight stops) and yet we had a successful trading month.   When we win we hold on to trades (average 25 minutes) and when we lose we get out quickly (average 8 minutes).  Also, you will notice on the equity curve ebbs and flows just like the markets.   Equity curve do not move in a linear fashion…there are peaks and valley.  That is to be expected.  Remember you DO NOT get paid on win percentage…but rather how much you win when you are right vs. how much you lose when you are wrong.

 

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The Oil Trading Group. (“OTG”) does not hold itself out as a Commodity Trading Advisor (“CTA”). Given this representation, all information and material provided by OTG is for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice.

 CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Risk Disclosure

Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results.